More Homes Launched Than Sold: Reading the Inventory Build-Up

Launches Outpace Absorption in Q3 2026

In the same Anarock Q3 2026 data covered in our previous piece, new launches in the top seven cities were about 1,14,320 units, up 18% from 96,690 a year earlier. Sales were about 1,00,220. In other words, developers launched roughly 14% more homes than customers bought in the quarter. This is a consultancy estimate reported by Business Today on 29 September 2026 and we have not verified it independently.

Where the launches were: The MMR led with about 37,500 units, followed by Hyderabad with about 18,950. Annual growth in launches was 120% in Hyderabad, 27% in the MMR and 17% in Bengaluru. Pune, the NCR, Chennai and Kolkata saw annual declines in launches. Hyderabad's jump from a smaller base shows how fast a market can change in a year, though a 120% increase says little by itself without the base figure.

Inventory Build-Up, Price Appreciation & The 6.3 Quarters Metric

Unsold stock: Unsold inventory across the seven cities was about 6,30,590 units at the end of the quarter, up 12% from 5,61,760 a year earlier. Dividing that stock by the quarter's sales gives about 6.3 quarters of supply at the current pace. That is our arithmetic and a crude measure, since it ignores the stages of construction and the fact that sales and launches vary by quarter. Developers and analysts often discuss inventory in "months to sell", and a figure above a year is often read as a sign of oversupply. We make no claim about whether this level is high or low for these cities, because we do not have the historical series in our sources.

Prices: The average price rose 7% year on year to Rs 9,714 per square foot from Rs 9,105. The NCR posted the highest increase at 12%, followed by Bengaluru at 8%. Prices rising while unsold stock also rises may look contradictory, but there are plausible explanations: new launches in premium segments, higher land and construction costs, and price increases on the units that sell. The data we have cannot tell us which of these dominates.

“Prices can rise while shelves fill. The question is who is buying at the margin.”

Ticket-Size Distribution & The Squeeze on Affordable Housing

By price band, 34% of launches were in the Rs 80 lakh to Rs 1.5 crore range, 24% between Rs 1.5 crore and Rs 2.5 crore, 17% between Rs 40 lakh and Rs 80 lakh, and 14% below Rs 40 lakh. Those percentages add to 89%, so the remaining 11% must be in higher bands not listed in our source, which is our inference. The takeaway is that only about one launch in seven is priced below Rs 40 lakh, and just over half sit between Rs 80 lakh and Rs 2.5 crore.

Guide to Evaluating Residential Inventory Metrics

How to read an inventory number: our guide: 1. Stock is not all equal. Ready-to-move units, under-construction units and recently launched units behave differently. A figure that lumps them is a starting point. 2. Look at the ratio, not only the level. A growing market can carry more stock safely. 3. Check geography. A national stock figure hides cities where stock is falling. 4. Watch the price band. Excess stock in luxury and shortages in affordable segments can coexist. 5. Ask about delivery. A launched unit that is never built is not supply in any useful sense.

Strategic Takeaways for Buyers, Developers & Regulators

What it means for buyers: A buyer has more choice when launches are high, and in some cases more bargaining power, particularly on ready units. But the rising price per square foot suggests that discounts are not universal. Compare the all-in price: base rate, parking, maintenance deposits, taxes and any "pay later" schemes. Verify the project's registration under the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act with the state regulator before paying.

What it means for developers: A cycle in which launches exceed sales works while demand keeps pace. If it does not, developers face higher holding costs. Those with strong balance sheets can wait; others may offer incentives. Phased launches and delivery discipline help.

What it means for policy: The thin share of launches below Rs 40 lakh is relevant to affordable-housing goals. Whether it reflects land costs, construction costs or developers' preference for larger tickets is a question the government and industry will have to answer with data.

What we do not know: We do not know the age profile of the unsold stock, the historical inventory ratio, or the sales-to-launch pattern in earlier quarters. We have only one source for these numbers.